May 05, 2004

nano Market Methodologies

We here at TNT always have the mixed emotion of glee and horror whenever we see the latest market size predictions for nanotechnology.

We've spent the last few years trying to ween people of the $1 trillion market size by 2015 concept. You see, you never know how these figures are derived. Are we talking about the sale of nanoparticles or shall we include every coating process known to man in those figures. In the past we have even seen reports including the entire value of a Mercedes Benz just because there is a nanoparticle in the paintwork.

The latest we came across comes from the rather shadowy organization FTM Consulting. There wasn't much to be learned from their website about who they are, or precisely what it is that they do. But nonetheless they have pegged the "nanoelectronics" market (in the US mind you) to reach $75 billion by 2014. Perhaps it's all true, but how do people arrive at these figures...it has us scratching our heads.

Another recent example comes from the rather peculiarHelmut Kaiser Consultancy who claim

"The worldwide automotive industries turnover in nanotechnologies is 8.6 billion US $. In 2004 and will be 54.2 billion US$ in 2010 and 137.4 billion US$ in 2015. The “Must” for the automotive industry is nanotechnology and converging markets.

All leading car manufacturers are in research projects involved but the supplyer mostly don’t see the changes and risks. Only through molecular technologies this industry has new and huge growth potential in the next ten years."

The main problem, of course, is that as soon as these numbers are out there, everyone starts quoting them...over and over again. They become justification for everthing from entire business plans to government policy.

We're not against anyone making a buck, but could someone perhaps pose the question, "What was your methodology for arriving at this number?" Simple enough question, we understood this is what journalists do.

Posted by Cientifica at May 5, 2004 11:22 PM | TrackBack
Comments

I agree with you about the "strange" numbers that come out from the market report about nanotechnology. Today, I think that speaking about a nano-market is only a good marketing promotion, but anyone of us really know where nanotechnology could arrive and if really will exist a concrete future of this wonderful technologies. Anyway I don't have read that extremly expensive report about the nanotechnology market and the forecast of the future, so I don't know if they have good element to speak about that.

Posted by: Alessio at May 7, 2004 12:38 PM

reseach applications in a potential industry or
branch, and potential applications, than discribing the possible, realistic development
for the future helps to state the own basic and
plan for the future. A better excample is the
new book with the titel "another world" by the author helmut kaiser. From Nanotechnology to
Molecular Industry 2025...
http://www.hkc22.com/molecularindustry.html

Posted by: helmut kaiser at May 12, 2004 06:56 AM

The poor writing alone clearly indicates the quality of Helmut Kaiser Consultancy’s reports. I have seen a couple of these so-called industry studies over the years and find them to be little more than sloppy advertisements. Just look at Kaiser’s reply or visit the website and ask yourself, “Would I accept such sloppy, un-proofread work from one of my employees?” Of course the glossy paper and colorful graphs may mesmerize some clients who lack the analytical depth to see beyond the slick presentation and question the data and reasoning behind the conclusions.

Posted by: Tom at January 15, 2005 10:32 AM
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