Comments 3

  1. Ruth Seeley

    Glad to see literature made it onto the list of worthwhile pursuits. Beer snobs get no respect.

    Seriously though, it is bizarre that when time-to-market has been so significantly reduced, it still seems to take 20 years minimum to effect real change. I’m thinking about working in the magazine business in the early 80s and art directors debating what ‘digital photography’ would mean. 20 years later they finally got a chance to find out.

  2. Andrew Maynard

    Tim,

    Agree that predicting the unpredictable is hardly productive. But anticipating the possible can be helpful, in that just occasionally it might help avoid a right royal cock-up!

    1. Post
      Author
      Tim

      Andrew, good point and I agree, but it has to be done as quantitatively as possible and I think that that is something that is missing from many current predictions. In the financial world we will tolerate a certain level of risk, and especially now it is important to have an idea of the probability of various things happening – credit defaults, grey goo etc, and these numbers are constantly revised (or should be). Obviously it is an imperfect science, but decisions need to be justified and asses need to be covered, so there has to be some methodology behind the predictions. If there is then you can trust your gut and the various other intangibles that separate a triumph from a cock-up, but if not then the process becomes totally random which wastes time/money/careers.

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